<

Cambodian King Norodom Sihanouk's doomsday predictions about his own death blew the whistle for the start of a new game of the national sport - second-guessing the future of the monarchy.

Although the next monarch will be chosen by the throne council, Sihanouk last week set the cat among the pigeons by saying he expected his son Norodom Ranaridh to succeed him. Since the king must be neutral, Ranaridh would have to give up his job as head of the royalist FUNCINPEC Party, the weaker partner in the current coalition government.

In a recent interview with the Cambodia Daily, Sihanouk went so far as to predict that the royal succession would sound the death knell for the party. But his son, waiting to welcome the king back from a visit to his doctors in Beijing, was adamant that he would rather be a politician. "I have no desire to become king," he told reporters.

Ranaridh said he would stay on as leader of FUNCINPEC to ensure the political pluralism that is a precursor for a healthy democracy. "Without FUNCINPEC, the Cambodian people would have no real choice," he said.

His friends believe he protests too much. "He is always saying he doesn't want to be king, but he behaves more like his father all the time. I would say there is around a 90 percent chance that he will be the next king," said one close associate.

Cabinet ministers and ambassadors who gathered to greet the returning monarch on Monday, were certainly deferential to Ranaridh, one of the country's two prime ministers. Many wondered why Sihanouk chose to tell the country through a letter to Ranaridh that he had brain lesions and expected soon to be too ill to act as head of state.

"It's glasnost, Cambodian style," said Pen Dareth, vice-president of the Preah Sihanouk Raj Academy. "The king lives in a glass house. He is incapable of keeping things to himself."

The 73-year-old Sihanouk, once told by astrologers he would die when he was 74, stipulated in his letter that the president of the national assembly Chea Sim should take over as head of state should he himself be unfit to rule. Some speculated that by giving notice of his death, the king sought to encourage the country's leaders to come to a consensus about the succession.

Cambodia was encouraged into democracy three years ago by an international community offering millions of dollars in aid. FUNCINPEC won United Nations brokered elections, but ended up as the underdog in a coalition dominated by the Cambodian People's Party, which had been running the country with the backing of Vietnam for more than a decade.

"The thing is, the CPP has the administrative skills. It is useless to win the elections unless you can form a government," said a Phnom Penh businessman.

If Ranaridh chooses to disentangle himself from politics and is appointed king, he will have a hard act to follow. Although Sihanouk has skated all over the political map since he was overthrown in 1970, he has become a symbol of national unity.

There is no obvious alternative to Ranaridh and some said his co-premier Hun Sen, a CPP leader and the real powerhouse behind the government, was keen to him on the throne so that he could sweep away the last irritating crumbs in the bed the two parties are forced to share.

Copyright 1996 Asia Times.

(c) 1996 Chamber World Network International Ltd.