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ASEAN digs in for EU showdown.
By ONG HOCK CHUAN AND ELIZABETH PISANI
983 words
22 July 1996
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Asia Times
English
(c) 1996 Chamber World Network International Ltd

Political leaders who only four months ago pledged mutual respect and cooperation at the inaugural Asia-Europe Meeting (ASEM) in Bangkok may be heading for their first official row.

ASEAN foreign ministers are willing to play hardball with the European Union (EU) if it insists on making an issue of Myanmar's early accession to the grouping and the first signs of dissent could come as early as Tuesday at the ASEAN Regional Forum (ARF).

ASEAN has so far heard no objection to Myanmar's participation but fears remain that the EU could use the occasion of Myanmar's formal ratification to ARF membership to register objections.

European countries represented in Jakarta this week want to complain about repression in Myanmar but are not sure about how far to go - an illustration of the different forces at work within the EU.

The ASEAN decision to act tough was made on Saturday following a statement last week by a senior European official that embracing Myanmar too quickly could jeopardize ASEAN's future relations with the EU. Myanmar was admitted as an ASEAN observer on Saturday and is due for full membership by 2000.

One ASEAN delegate said the thinking among the group's foreign ministers was that ASEAN would be prepared to call the EU's bluff. The delegate said ASEAN would be willing to tell the EU it could leave ARF, an organization which was designed to allow talks among foreign and defense ministers on regional security.

"When you look at it, the EU is not a big player in the region's security so their membership in the ARF is dispensable," he said. He pointed out that in the unlikely event that the EU refused to back down, ASEAN might decide to frame the criteria of joining ARF in such a way that they might have to review the EU's membership. Faced with a list of countries wanting to join ARF, ASEAN is presently drawing up a set of guidelines to determine who is eligible to join the forum.

"The practice so far is that once you are in the ARF there is no review but, if forced to, ASEAN can manipulate the guidelines, which are still being formulated, to exclude the EU," the delegate said. "It can then resort to considering European countries for membership individually. Bear in mind that Britain and France have expressed an interest to join the ARF in spite of their being part of the EU."

He said ASEAN was determined not to be dictated to on its own turf and Indonesia had asked to sit in on a working breakfast between Singapore and the EU on Thursday. "Indonesia's request is an indication that (Foreign Minister) Ali Alatas, who is also chairman of the ARF, will want to express ASEAN's views clearly."

The ASEAN tone is quite different from the harmony expressed at the ASEM summit in Bangkok in March, when leaders from 25 countries emphasized that the rapid changes in the world economy were leading to the emergence of a multi-polar world in which "Asia and Europe should play a major role".

A European diplomat said there was a unanimous feeling among foreign ministers that pressure should be brought to bear on Yangon. At the same time, he acknowledged there was not much they could actually do. European Union countries already keep official contact with Myanmar's State Law and Order Restoration Council (SLORC) to a bare minimum and the tap has been turned off on aid money.

"Retaliation is a bit difficult," said the European Commission's external affairs commissioner Manuel Marin. "Our total trade with Myanmar is only US$200 million. It is peanuts and it gives us no political leverage." ASEAN and other Asian nations, besides being geographically closer to Myanmar, have far greater economic ties. "The common sense option is to discuss Burma with ASEAN, even if we are not very optimistic about the outcome," said a Dutch diplomat.

EU trade with ASEAN countries was about US$74 billion last year. Only France, whose oil company Total is leading a US$1.2 billion pipeline project across Myanmar, has anything significant to lose if economic sanctions are imposed. But offending ASEAN is a different matter.

"Our embassies in ASEAN countries all say they would not at all like us to bring up the Burma issue," said a European diplomat. But this matters more to some nations than others. "You have to be realistic about where the trade is," said a commission official whose view reflected that of industrial powers such as Germany and Britain.

The practical workings of the EU will, to a certain extent, affect how the issue is presented. Europe will be represented in Jakarta by the foreign ministers of Italy, the last EU president, the Netherlands, which is next in line, and Ireland, which presently holds the chair. "The Irish presidency takes issues like Burma and East Timor more seriously because they have less at stake economically," said Paul Lim, research coordinator of the European Institute for Asian Studies. Some EU officials are beginning to sound remarkably similar to ASEAN. Asked about putting pressure on SLORC to be more respectful of political freedoms, Alatas said: "ASEAN prefers to talk quietly about things sensitive to certain countries."

Asked about the EU's approach, a spokesman said: "You can go in very heavily or you can try to talk. We would prefer to use carrots than sticks."

An ASEAN delegate said: "We think that it is unlikely that the EU will want to sacrifice its ties with ASEAN over Myanmar. But if it turns out that the EU wants to make an issue of it then we are prepared to stand our ground."

Copyright 1996 Asia Times.

(c) 1996 Chamber World Network International Ltd.

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