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European foreign ministers meeting in Brussels on Monday were due to discuss the possibility of trade sanctions against Myanmar. But the outcome is likely to re flect an increasing recognition that Eur ope's political leverage is being whittled away by Asia's booming economies.

Trade sanctions are being proposed by Denmark, one of several European countries represented in Myanmar by honorary consul James Leander Nichols, a staunch supporter of the country's wounded democracy movement, until his death in a Yangon prison cell on June 22.

Most of Denmark's European Union partners agreed that Nichols' death was symptomatic of an increasingly flagrant abuse of basic dignities by Myanmar's ruling State Law and Order Restoration Council (SLORC).

However, it is unlikely the demand for sanctions would be carried. The EU runs its foreign policy by consensus and several nations are doubtful about the legality of sanctions which may conflict with World Trade Organization rulings. "We are al ways very cautious about any type of trade sanction," said a German diplomat.

One British official said a United Nations Security Council resolution might be required to make sanctions compatible with the WTO. "And when you look at the make-up of the Security Council, it's frankly pretty damned unlikely that we would get such a resolution," he said.

Legal issues aside, some European nations said they were in any case not convinced that sanctions would be especially effective. "There is always a danger that you end up hurting poor people more than you hurt their rulers," said one European official with experience in Myanmar. "In the case of Burma, we would probably do most damage to a handful of students trying to export wooden elephants."

These doubts appear rooted in the uneasy knowledge that Europe has as much to lose from Myanmar as Myanmar does from Europe. Another country said by diplomats to be ranged against sanctions is France, whose biggest oil company Total is developing a US$1.2 billion gas pipeline intended to carry Myanmar gas to power stations in Thailand.

Europe's political leverage is limited. "It is difficult to know how Europe can bring any real pressure to bear," said one official. "You would need the ASEAN (Association of Southeast Asian Nations) countries and Japan to go along with you at least some of the way - they are the real powers in the area. But while we are in favor of critical dialogue, all they want is constructive engagement."

Constructive engagement amounted to keeping mouths shut about human rights abuses as long as contracts were signed and money was made, according to many critics of ASEAN's friendly relationship with Myanmar's rulers.

That approach, however, does not work so well in countries where pressure groups, often outside the political system, can rally popular opinion. Danish brewer Carlsberg last week pulled out of a beer project in Myanmar because of a looming consumer boycott at home. Dutch company Heine ken immediately followed suit.

For the moment, these withdrawals have probably not caused SLORC too many sleepless nights. Heineken's 25.5 percent stake in the Myanmar brewery will be taken over by Singapore-based Fraser and Neave.

As long as Asian business appears ready to fill any vacuum left by European trade restrictions, the effect of such restrictions will be muted. Europe may try to press Myanmar's leaders by putting the issue on the table in talks with ASEAN senior officials this month. But formalized relations between the European Union and ASEAN are in their infancy and one Asia watcher in Brussels said it was unlikely the European group would want to insist at this stage on hammering away at a topic so unpalatable to its Asian counterpart.

The abandoned brewery investments do, however, demonstrate that disgust with Yangon is running high among the European electorate. The EU has already iss ued one harshly worded demand that SLORC show some respect for civil freedoms. Activists and the voters who support them will be hoping for more than mere words from the foreign ministers' meeting.

The probable outcome of Monday's lunch, according to an official from Ireland which presently chairs the EU, was that a commission would be set up to look for ways of pressuring Yangon into more democratic ways. While this may yet turn into just another talking shop, an unusual proposed requirement that the committee recommend firm action within six weeks indicates how seriously European governments are taking the issue.

Copyright 1996 Asia Times.

(c) 1996 Chamber World Network International Ltd.